Upload
Login or register

ishotthedeputy

Last status update:
-
Date Signed Up:6/21/2011
Last Login:11/21/2016
Stats
Comment Ranking:#16195
Highest Content Rank:#2772
Highest Comment Rank:#362
Content Thumbs: 6995 total,  7950 ,  955
Comment Thumbs: 17068 total,  19739 ,  2671
Content Level Progress: 88% (88/100)
Level 169 Content: Soldier Of Funnyjunk → Level 170 Content: Soldier Of Funnyjunk
Comment Level Progress: 72.2% (722/1000)
Level 316 Comments: Wizard → Level 317 Comments: Wizard
Subscribers:2
Content Views:246119
Times Content Favorited:440 times
Total Comments Made:3309
FJ Points:23880
Favorite Tags: a (2) | he (2) | out (2) | Stupid (2)

Text Posts

  • Views: 44184
    Thumbs Up 2006 Thumbs Down 324 Total: +1682
    Comments: 94
    Favorites: 79
    Uploaded: 07/02/12
    Trust me, I'm a doctor. Trust me, I'm a doctor.
  • Views: 41754
    Thumbs Up 1604 Thumbs Down 107 Total: +1497
    Comments: 124
    Favorites: 176
    Uploaded: 10/09/12
    This kid This kid
  • Views: 33077
    Thumbs Up 1303 Thumbs Down 95 Total: +1208
    Comments: 26
    Favorites: 85
    Uploaded: 10/02/12
    Potter Fun Time Potter Fun Time
  • Views: 34253
    Thumbs Up 1302 Thumbs Down 138 Total: +1164
    Comments: 23
    Favorites: 28
    Uploaded: 07/05/12
    Bad Luck Ducreux Bad Luck Ducreux
  • Views: 14458
    Thumbs Up 524 Thumbs Down 26 Total: +498
    Comments: 7
    Favorites: 24
    Uploaded: 01/27/13
    Punchline Punchline
  • Views: 21248
    Thumbs Up 514 Thumbs Down 48 Total: +466
    Comments: 13
    Favorites: 12
    Uploaded: 02/10/13
    Thumper sees you Thumper sees you

latest user's comments

#140 - *claims he's never even heard of the hate crimes going on in h…  [+] (2 replies) 11/15/2016 on Trump calls for hate crimes... -6
#157 - anon (11/15/2016) [-]
Right, Just like how Hillary flaunts her crimes in the faces of her supporters.
#164 - ishotthedeputy (11/15/2016) [-]
NoT eVeRyThInG tRuMp DoEs HaS tO bE cOmPaReD tO hIlLaRy He'S sTiLl a ShItTy PeRsOn ReGaRdLeSs
#222 - Correct.  [+] (2 replies) 11/02/2016 on Look what I found (Trump... 0
#225 - dudulli (11/03/2016) [-]
Then I finish by quoting an anonymous poster
"I literally can't understand how something as retarded as this system of "prediction" can become popular in a country. It eludes me.

The point of making a prediction is to assess the facts available at the time, and say how numbers will turn out or the chance of some event happening. The quality of your prediction is whether that seems to play out as you said.

For this type of poll, there is no failure state, no way to have a low quality poll.

>WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF A PLANE FLYING INTO THE PENTAGON? **0.01%**

>OH SHIT A PLANE IS FLYING DIRECTLY AT THE PENTAGON, I REVISE MY PROBABILITY TO **99%**

>IT HAPPENED! LOOK HOW RIGHT I WAS! MASTER PREDICTOR!"
#230 - ishotthedeputy (11/03/2016) [-]
Probability changes over time. That's the whole point of it. On election day he'll give his official "predictions" based on who has the best chance, but that's when it ends. If you see no point in seeing how polling looks over the course of the cycle, sweet. I don't give a shit. I look at it to see what groups are voting for what candidate and if there's overwhelming support from only one group (in Trump's case, white, non-educated males) then I take a step back and think about if that candidate is just pandering to one group. You're taking these probabilities as black-and-white. They're absolutely not like that. It's a spectrum that's changing in magnitude. And yes, in 5 days he's going to put out what he thinks the most likely map is, but there's a margin for error, as there is with literally everything in statistics. If he's within that margin, he's successful. He's just been building up to that point and adjusting as more information comes to him instead of blindly giving a prediction based on subjective feelings.
#217 - I mean why look at polls at all? We do the same thing during s…  [+] (4 replies) 11/02/2016 on Look what I found (Trump... 0
User avatar
#219 - dudulli (11/02/2016) [-]
So basically you are telling me he doesn't actually make any predictions at all.
He gives me a momentarily number of "probability".
#222 - ishotthedeputy (11/02/2016) [-]
Correct.
#225 - dudulli (11/03/2016) [-]
Then I finish by quoting an anonymous poster
"I literally can't understand how something as retarded as this system of "prediction" can become popular in a country. It eludes me.

The point of making a prediction is to assess the facts available at the time, and say how numbers will turn out or the chance of some event happening. The quality of your prediction is whether that seems to play out as you said.

For this type of poll, there is no failure state, no way to have a low quality poll.

>WHAT IS THE PROBABILITY OF A PLANE FLYING INTO THE PENTAGON? **0.01%**

>OH SHIT A PLANE IS FLYING DIRECTLY AT THE PENTAGON, I REVISE MY PROBABILITY TO **99%**

>IT HAPPENED! LOOK HOW RIGHT I WAS! MASTER PREDICTOR!"
#230 - ishotthedeputy (11/03/2016) [-]
Probability changes over time. That's the whole point of it. On election day he'll give his official "predictions" based on who has the best chance, but that's when it ends. If you see no point in seeing how polling looks over the course of the cycle, sweet. I don't give a shit. I look at it to see what groups are voting for what candidate and if there's overwhelming support from only one group (in Trump's case, white, non-educated males) then I take a step back and think about if that candidate is just pandering to one group. You're taking these probabilities as black-and-white. They're absolutely not like that. It's a spectrum that's changing in magnitude. And yes, in 5 days he's going to put out what he thinks the most likely map is, but there's a margin for error, as there is with literally everything in statistics. If he's within that margin, he's successful. He's just been building up to that point and adjusting as more information comes to him instead of blindly giving a prediction based on subjective feelings.