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holycrapimacupcake

Last status update:
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Gender: male
Date Signed Up:8/06/2010
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Content Ranking:#4586
Comment Ranking:#2751
Highest Content Rank:#3035
Highest Comment Rank:#1261
Content Thumbs: 781 total,  1028 ,  247
Comment Thumbs: 21828 total,  28387 ,  6559
Content Level Progress: 40% (4/10)
Level 61 Content: FJ Cultist → Level 62 Content: FJ Cultist
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Level 319 Comments: Wizard → Level 320 Comments: Covered In Thumbs
Subscribers:5
Content Views:62002
Times Content Favorited:39 times
Total Comments Made:17462
FJ Points:21308

latest user's comments

#164 - Syndicate is so much better. They got rid of the one hit kill …  [+] (2 replies) 09/01/2016 on Shit for your Butt #21 +1
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#165 - elevatorbaby (09/01/2016) [-]
Huh, guess I'll have to check it out if I find a copy for a decent price still saving for all the game releases this fall
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#167 - holycrapimacupcake (09/01/2016) [-]
I think you can get a copy for like 30.
#161 - And in Syndicate none of your targets were actual people.  [+] (4 replies) 09/01/2016 on Shit for your Butt #21 +1
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#163 - elevatorbaby (09/01/2016) [-]
Really? I didn't even play Syndicate, I gave up on the series after Unity
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#164 - holycrapimacupcake (09/01/2016) [-]
Syndicate is so much better. They got rid of the one hit kill counters, the characters are actually enjoyable, and you get to talk with Charles Dickens.
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#165 - elevatorbaby (09/01/2016) [-]
Huh, guess I'll have to check it out if I find a copy for a decent price still saving for all the game releases this fall
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#167 - holycrapimacupcake (09/01/2016) [-]
I think you can get a copy for like 30.
#197 - Feminine males are good fun though. I enjoy a sissy.  [+] (1 reply) 08/29/2016 on When a man talks about... 0
#205 - huntersdman (08/30/2016) [-]
oh feminine* guys are amazing, feminist* guys are what irritate me. I mean that in a specific context though. Guys that advocate for equality between sexes are fine, but bitchy whiny, tumbler males are what irk me.
#24 - Noost? 08/29/2016 on Intimidation +2
#45 - she's fun, bit tricky at first, but fun. her mech is a be…  [+] (4 replies) 08/29/2016 on Borderlands 2 Logic +4
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#55 - faithrider (08/29/2016) [-]
yes. best way to play gaige is put all the stats into sharing shit with the robot, then give him death lasers and shit like that
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#58 - mrmask (08/29/2016) [-]
or to go complete anarchy, so you can shoot at the wall behind you with a shotgun and everybody die
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#67 - fourfangedferret (08/29/2016) [-]
Anarchy gaige with fibber. Because of the unlisted extra projectiles, the ricochets deal 100% damage, and with the 450-odd anarchy, you go through enemies like a buzzsaw through a midget.
#57 - mrmask has deleted their comment.
#43 - Gaige  [+] (8 replies) 08/29/2016 on Borderlands 2 Logic +9
#91 - roflstorm (08/29/2016) [-]
With the correct build, she can become the most OP VH in the entire game, facerolling the peak in 12 minutes and she'll do so looking at the ground
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#64 - stifflimb (08/29/2016) [-]
Maya
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#44 - anotherponyaccount (08/29/2016) [-]
Haven't gotten around to playing her so I dunno
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#45 - holycrapimacupcake (08/29/2016) [-]
she's fun, bit tricky at first, but fun. her mech is a beast if you make it output most of your damage.
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#55 - faithrider (08/29/2016) [-]
yes. best way to play gaige is put all the stats into sharing shit with the robot, then give him death lasers and shit like that
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#58 - mrmask (08/29/2016) [-]
or to go complete anarchy, so you can shoot at the wall behind you with a shotgun and everybody die
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#67 - fourfangedferret (08/29/2016) [-]
Anarchy gaige with fibber. Because of the unlisted extra projectiles, the ricochets deal 100% damage, and with the 450-odd anarchy, you go through enemies like a buzzsaw through a midget.
#57 - mrmask has deleted their comment.
#49 - You mean the inflated numbers that the media gives her because…  [+] (14 replies) 08/29/2016 on Hillary speaks in Cleveland +9
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#152 - donatelo (08/29/2016) [-]
You mean surveys conducted breitbart who called bullshit on Hillary, yet reached the same findings?
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#83 - Ruspanic (08/29/2016) [-]
"the media is manipulating every poll ever because Hillary controls everything"
why even vote, then?
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#51 - autumntea (08/29/2016) [-]
Actually, those numbers reflect estimates from 20 different surveys, including right wing outlets like the very Trump-friendly Breitbart. Which also argued those numbers were faked, just to get similar results. Still, I respect them for publishing them anyways.
#59 - minutes (08/29/2016) [-]
You know that these surveys usually are very fucking bad? It's actually not easy to conduct a well made survey.
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#65 - dangerface (08/29/2016) [-]
I don't think the surveys are bad. But to get a real view on things you might need to have more people asked!

For instance: you ask 1000 people in every state, meaning 50.000 people were asked, meaning that you get a nice outcome like pic related. But what are 1000 people for states like florida and california? Nothing I tell you, because you asked to few people.

Also If you make a survey and ask 1000 people of new york, of which 250 are from Manhattan, 150 from the Bronx, 100 from queens 100 from Idk, you survey gets fucked up which happens more in these surveys, than you might think.

THis is why survey are always compared to each other and sometimes are very far away from the truth
#66 - minutes (08/29/2016) [-]
I am doing a Survey Methodology Masters degree atm. Low sample size is indeed a problem, but it's by far not the biggest. The worst thing are systematic distortions. Many of these surveys don't use a random sample, which basically almost instantly means they are shit. Nonresponse usually just gets ignored, lots of over and undercoverage etc.
There are tons of reasons they suck, which is why they sometimes don't have the results you would be expecting
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#87 - Ruspanic (08/29/2016) [-]
Even if we accept that poll results are flawed, in order for them all to show Hillary winning if she really isn't, wouldn't they all have to have very similar sampling errors?

If it were just a matter of different polls having methodological mistakes, then shouldn't a large compilation of independently-conducted polls more or less cancel out the effect of sampling error?
#97 - minutes (08/29/2016) [-]
If the mistakes were random, it would be no problem. For example if the nonresponse (the people that refuse to answer the surveys) aren't systematically different from the people who answered it can actually be ignored. The problem, again here, are systematic errors. For example: There are always people who are easy to contact and people who are hard to contact. Like a house wife and a businessman. Now in a well done survey you would try your hardest to get the contact to that businessman by trying over and over again, which is time and money consuming. In a shitty survey you would just say fuck it can't get him. Now it's entirely possible that these hard to contact people have very different opinions than the easy to contact people, therefore a systematic difference is destroying any kind of inference you can get.

I know where you're getting at, that these mistakes might cancel out, but you have absolutely no basis of knowing if that's the case.

One of the most famous example for that is the "Literary Digest Desaster" - read for yourself if you want: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Literary_Digest#Presidential_poll

Also, if you don't use a simple random sample with a defined total population, you can't use inference by definition. It's just math.
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#157 - donatelo (08/29/2016) [-]
Why would you assume the surveys are bad? Although surveys are indeed flawed simply because America is huge as fuck, surveys offer atleast a glimpse of the opinion on the matter. The fact that the opinion is not falling within the margin of error is pretty interesting. Likewise, when even a biased source conducts a counter survey and finds the same results, it leads to more credibility.

FINALLY, the fact that the findings can be duplicated via other outlets regardless of affiliation, gives even more credibility.
#168 - minutes (08/29/2016) [-]
...
The surveys are bad cause they were done bad. Have you even read what I said? I know a fucking lot about surveys, it's my job. The results don't matter at all if they come from sources like this. If you really want to understand, pick up a book on survey methodology.
Reliability (the ability to reproduce results) is important yes. But without validity it is completely useless. Just think of a broken scale. It will show +5 kg to any weight you put on it. Now you can totally reproduce this result, it's still wrong.
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#169 - donatelo (08/29/2016) [-]
I focus on sccientific research methods and statistics,both of which are easy to compare to a survey. "research methodology" sounds like hogwash when simply learning research methods covers that AND more.

Im not just saying reliability, --replicability-- plays a huge factor in this as well...aka the fact that the same findings can be found in repeated surveys (akin to the same findings being found in different labs in a research study). Where is your proof that this is not a valid survey? without proof that it is not valid than you cant claim that as a fault.
#170 - minutes (08/29/2016) [-]
I'll give you a few reasons why this conversation will end for me now:

1. You still obviously haven't read what I posted before
2. You assume shit about my degree when you know nothing about it apart from it's name, and you couldn't even get the name right in your comment
3. You don't understand what I am saying.

Go read a fucking book on survey methodology. Look at the way these polls were conducted afterwards and come here again.
#175 - robinwilliamson (08/29/2016) [-]
You could always you know, just cite the polls here and point things out.
Don't be shy, apply your knowledge, don't continue to speak in this language like "The surveys are bad cause they were done bad." "...sources like this." and just talk about the concepts ( >>#97 ) you learned, as though concepts are as good as experience.

Just take a walk through the information that's readily available 24/7 and back it up with relevant specificity.

For instance, RCP has some here:
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/2016_elections_electoral_college_map.html

We'll go to swing state Florida
www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/fl/florida_trump_vs_clinton-5635.html

And Monmouth has a 9 point lead for Clinton:
www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_FL_081616.asp

And in in their release they let the world know:
"METHODOLOGY
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 12 to 15, 2016 with a random sample of 402 likely Florida voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 352 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 152 cell phone) and a andom digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible
for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls."


See?
If this is what you're into, then play with it a little. Everything goes faster.
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#171 - donatelo (08/29/2016) [-]
I aint reading shit on that...sounds meaningless and super niche. i got the name wrong because of a mental mistake. Research methods and statistics covers survey crap and does more and better. You havent proven any means as to why the surveys arent valid.
#19 - Skillet's actually pretty good.  [+] (1 reply) 08/29/2016 on He saw opportunity +16
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#41 - solomon (08/29/2016) [-]
i freakin love skillet. i went to see them. apparently that didn't come across in the comment