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latest user's comments
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|#49 - You mean the inflated numbers that the media gives her because… [+] (14 new replies)||08/29/2016 on Hillary speaks in Cleveland||+9|
#65 - dangerface (21 hours ago) [-]
I don't think the surveys are bad. But to get a real view on things you might need to have more people asked!
For instance: you ask 1000 people in every state, meaning 50.000 people were asked, meaning that you get a nice outcome like pic related. But what are 1000 people for states like florida and california? Nothing I tell you, because you asked to few people.
Also If you make a survey and ask 1000 people of new york, of which 250 are from Manhattan, 150 from the Bronx, 100 from queens 100 from Idk, you survey gets fucked up which happens more in these surveys, than you might think.
THis is why survey are always compared to each other and sometimes are very far away from the truth
#66 - minutes (20 hours ago) [-]
I am doing a Survey Methodology Masters degree atm. Low sample size is indeed a problem, but it's by far not the biggest. The worst thing are systematic distortions. Many of these surveys don't use a random sample, which basically almost instantly means they are shit. Nonresponse usually just gets ignored, lots of over and undercoverage etc.
There are tons of reasons they suck, which is why they sometimes don't have the results you would be expecting
#87 - Ruspanic (18 hours ago) [-]
Even if we accept that poll results are flawed, in order for them all to show Hillary winning if she really isn't, wouldn't they all have to have very similar sampling errors?
If it were just a matter of different polls having methodological mistakes, then shouldn't a large compilation of independently-conducted polls more or less cancel out the effect of sampling error?
#97 - minutes (17 hours ago) [-]
If the mistakes were random, it would be no problem. For example if the nonresponse (the people that refuse to answer the surveys) aren't systematically different from the people who answered it can actually be ignored. The problem, again here, are systematic errors. For example: There are always people who are easy to contact and people who are hard to contact. Like a house wife and a businessman. Now in a well done survey you would try your hardest to get the contact to that businessman by trying over and over again, which is time and money consuming. In a shitty survey you would just say fuck it can't get him. Now it's entirely possible that these hard to contact people have very different opinions than the easy to contact people, therefore a systematic difference is destroying any kind of inference you can get.
I know where you're getting at, that these mistakes might cancel out, but you have absolutely no basis of knowing if that's the case.
One of the most famous example for that is the "Literary Digest Desaster" - read for yourself if you want: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Literary_Digest#Presidential_poll
Also, if you don't use a simple random sample with a defined total population, you can't use inference by definition. It's just math.
#157 - donatelo (13 hours ago) [-]
Why would you assume the surveys are bad? Although surveys are indeed flawed simply because America is huge as fuck, surveys offer atleast a glimpse of the opinion on the matter. The fact that the opinion is not falling within the margin of error is pretty interesting. Likewise, when even a biased source conducts a counter survey and finds the same results, it leads to more credibility.
FINALLY, the fact that the findings can be duplicated via other outlets regardless of affiliation, gives even more credibility.
#168 - minutes (13 hours ago) [-]
The surveys are bad cause they were done bad. Have you even read what I said? I know a fucking lot about surveys, it's my job. The results don't matter at all if they come from sources like this. If you really want to understand, pick up a book on survey methodology.
Reliability (the ability to reproduce results) is important yes. But without validity it is completely useless. Just think of a broken scale. It will show +5 kg to any weight you put on it. Now you can totally reproduce this result, it's still wrong.
#169 - donatelo (12 hours ago) [-]
I focus on sccientific research methods and statistics,both of which are easy to compare to a survey. "research methodology" sounds like hogwash when simply learning research methods covers that AND more.
Im not just saying reliability, --replicability-- plays a huge factor in this as well...aka the fact that the same findings can be found in repeated surveys (akin to the same findings being found in different labs in a research study). Where is your proof that this is not a valid survey? without proof that it is not valid than you cant claim that as a fault.
#170 - minutes (12 hours ago) [-]
I'll give you a few reasons why this conversation will end for me now:
1. You still obviously haven't read what I posted before
2. You assume shit about my degree when you know nothing about it apart from it's name, and you couldn't even get the name right in your comment
3. You don't understand what I am saying.
Go read a fucking book on survey methodology. Look at the way these polls were conducted afterwards and come here again.
#175 - robinwilliamson (11 hours ago) [-]
Don't be shy, apply your knowledge, don't continue to speak in this language like "The surveys are bad cause they were done bad." "...sources like this." and just talk about the concepts ( >>#97 ) you learned, as though concepts are as good as experience.
Just take a walk through the information that's readily available 24/7 and back it up with relevant specificity.
For instance, RCP has some here:
We'll go to swing state Florida
And Monmouth has a 9 point lead for Clinton:
And in in their release they let the world know:
The Monmouth University Poll was sponsored and conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute from August 12 to 15, 2016 with a random sample of 402 likely Florida voters. Interviews were conducted by a live caller in English, including 352 drawn from a list of registered voters (200 landline / 152 cell phone) and a andom digit dial supplement of 50 cell phone interviews. Monmouth is responsible
for all aspects of the survey design, data weighting and analysis. The final sample is weighted for age, gender, race and partisanship based on voter list and U.S. Census information. Data collection support provided by Braun Research (field), Aristotle (voter list sample), and SSI (RDD sample). For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the error attributable to sampling has a maximum margin of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points (unadjusted for sample design). Sampling error can be larger for sub-groups (see table below). In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls."
If this is what you're into, then play with it a little. Everything goes faster.
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