If you were to to close your eyes and randomly point to an answer on the board you would have a 25% chance of selecting B. There are two options for 25% on the board, which means there is a 50% chance of randomly choosing A or D. Both A and D accurately describe the odds of selecting B.
The question in itself is a paradox. You can flip flop between A/D and B, but the real trick is choosing an answer which can be defined (IE, is just one answer, not two like "A and D") and also is true. So...
The correct answer is B, because there is a 50% of guessing A or D. And and D both represent the statistical chance of guessing B.
I won't pretend i understand this 100%, but i still think this riddle is not solvable. See comment number 47 for details. Whatever you chose changes the answer.
Also, since A and D are the same, your chance of choosing any value randomly is 33,3% which isn't listed at all, and even if it were, it would be turned wrong once you pick it. (since then there would be 4 different values listed, which would make 25 correct, since it wouldn't be a paradox anymore.)
It's a multiple choice question with 4 choices, stripping the choices A,B,C, & D of their values to choose one at random gives you a 25% chance of choosing correctly in any multiple choice question. There are two choices for 25%, you would have a 50% chance of choosing the right answer. So the answer is B.
You can't argue this, B is only one choice of 4, so you still have a 25% chance of choosing it at random. "So wouldn't that make the right answer 25%? That's why it's a paradox?" If the answer were 25%, you would have a 50% chance of choosing it at random. B is still the right answer.
The trick is that the question isn't asking you to actually choose on at random, in order to break out of the circle of fallacies you put yourself into you have to split your imagined situation into two dimensions so that you are a spectator watching another person answer the question at random. What is the chance they will answer correctly? Since it is initially 25% by default for any multiple choice, they have two choices for 25%, you now know that they have a 50% chance of answering correctly, thus YOUR answer is 50% while THEIRS is 25%. Any other speculation beyond this is redundant and will lead you to the same conclusion, answer B and continue with the test.
But he's not wrong, in that answer I gave essentially the same explanation but with more jumbled words, which in my opinion only made mine more confusing. Still the same answer though.
but in choosing as the correct answer 50% that would then make the correct answer 25%, since there is only a 25% chance of randomly picking 50%. so a definitive answer seems impossible to me.
0% It's a paradox. No matter what answer you choose, it's always wrong.
Correct answer will change with the answer you choose; It's either A/D or B, but when you choose A/D, correct answer becomes B & when you chose B, the correct answer becomes A/D.
The answer is B) 50%, this is because the question states that the selection is chosen at random, therefore we can disregard the actual answers and treat them as A, B, C and D. Out of these four, one of them would be correct, hence the correct answer would be 25%. Now if we look at the question with the given answers, we see that there are 2 options that are 25%, hence, the chance or randomly selecting the right answer would be P(A)+P(B), hence the correct answer would be B) 50%
no matter how you look at it it will disprove itself in one way or another, it cant be b beucase theres a 1 in 4 chance of randomly picking b, cant be a or d because theres 2 25% options making it so the chances of picking 25% (a or d) are 50%
C was meant to say 0%, but choosing it would still be wrong as it is 1 in 4 chance. However for this question, the answer I would choose would be C, mainly cause its the odd one out
The question has nothing to do with the outcome, it's asking "what are your chances" not "what is the correct answer".
Ergo, if there are 4 answers, you have 25%, and since we don't know the answer, it might be A/D.
Ergo, there are 3 solutions.
1. Disregard the answers, and look at the questions statistically. 25% chance to choose the right one not minding that A/D are the same answer.
2. If we know the answer, but are just calculating the chances, the answer goes as:
a) correct answer is 25%, chances are 50%
b) correct answer is 50%, chances are 25%
3. The stupidest of possible ways to interpret this.
If there are 4 answers, 2 of which are the same, that leaves us with 3 practical answers, resulting in a 1/3 chance to hit the right one, if we choose not to involve one of the 25% answers. But the question doesn't state that we can eliminate an answers, so there goes that.
To summarize, The most logical answer would be 25%, because it doesn't contradict with itself as a statement with the outcome of the "equation".
The answer would be 25% chance as there are 4 answers but since there are 2 25% answers that would imply a 50% chance. Which brings it back to 25% chance. its asking your chances of choosing a correct answer ya but in choosing the 50% as the correct answer you'd be wrong, since that would mean there is a 25% chance.
So you cannot be right in any answer as in choosing one would just mean that the other answer is right.
Ah come on people use your brains and think past the first step!!
"So the answer is 50% because that's how big the possibility is that 25% is right. "
Ok but then that'd mean there is one right answer out of the 4 answers... if 50% is the "right" answer there is therefore a 25% chance of being right...meaning 25% is the right answer meaning 2 out of 4 answers are right meaning 50% is the right answer....but then there would be 1 correct answer out of 4...25%...do i have to keep going with this infinite loop or are you all quite finished???
you have also successfully ignored the fact that is says pick a random answer. Because of this you cannot say that because two answers are the same there are only 3 answers. No, there are still four, you will just be answering the same way if you pick one of the two. Furthermore you called everyone else retarded for it, even though you were wrong. You should stop talking now and preferably never start again.
The answer is b though its asking for the percent of the possibility youd get this right since there are 2 25% out of 4 possible answers then theres a 50% chance you could get it right therefore its B
25% chance of choosing the correct answer randomly; picking one answer out of 4.
1/4 = 25%. but as we know, a & d are both 25% (2/4), so i guess that then means we have a 50% chance of choosing the correct answer. So the answer is D. 50%
but in choosing as the correct answer as 50% that would then make the REAL correct answer 25%, since there is only a 25% chance of randomly picking 50%.
Your reasoning is correct but incomplete. The problem is that your reasoning continues like this forever, making it a paradox. Every correct answer also changes the conditions for the initial question and , thus, changing the answer.
Like this
chance of picking ONE correct answer out of FOUR: 1/4 = 25% chance
chance of picking an answer that says 25%: 2/4 = 50%
chance of picking an answer that says 50%: 1/4 = 25%
chance of picking an answer that says 25%: 2/4 = 50%
chance of picking an answer that says 50%: 1/4 = 25%
chance of picking an answer that says 25%: 2/4 = 50%
chance of picking an answer that says 50%: 1/4 = 25%
etc.
Come on guys.. It's 50%. If you choose an answer at random in any multiple choice with 4 choices, you have 25% chance of getting the correct answer. Now, we have the correct answer twice here, in A and D. Therefore, we have 50% chance of getting the correct answer by guessing randomly in this case, hence B is correct.
No, there is no real answer. Yes the answer would be 25% if there weren't two alike answers, because there are the likelyhood is 50%. BUT because there is only ONE 50% answer it again makes the answer 25% which goes back to there being two answers with 25% making the answer 50%. But again because there is only one 50% there is only 25% chance of getting it correct by picking randomly, etc etc. There is no correct answer to it.
But it says what's the chance of us getting a right answer when answering THIS question. Normally it would be 25%, but now that there are two 25% options, we have 50% chance of answering THIS question right at random.
If this doesn't work, I still see no paradox in it, because then the answer by probability would be 0%.
No, you don't, because while the answer is 25% chance to answer correctly, there are two 25% making the answer 50% because you have a 50% chance to choose 25%.... but now you have the problem, because now the correct answer (50%) is only there once, making it again 25% chance to choose the right answer. But 25% is there twice, making it now 50%, but 50% is only there once, making it 25%, but 25% is there twice making it 50%.... etc etc. Get it?
I think this is the third or fourth time I see this on here, and every time the comments section is the same.
The terms of the question depend upon the answer, and the answer depends upon the terms of the question. Full circle.
There is no answer. Stop trying to figure it out ffs.
Of course, you can always look at it from outside the loop and think that your answer doesn't have to be listed among the options.
In which case the answer is 0%
Which is why I prefer the version of the question where the options listed are
A) 20%
B) 40%
C) 70%
D) 20%
E) 0%
Let's say you have a set of 100 options, from which you are to pick one.
What's the probability that you picked the 'correct' one?
It's not 50%, it's 1%.
Just because there are two possibilities "right or wrong", that doesn't mean that both possibilities are equally likely.
true... i didn't really want to give a long explanation but here we go.. i believe the puzzle above to be a logic puzzle rather than a maths one....the probability of being correct has no actual relation to the answers themselves, however the way the question is worded makes it sound like it does
In the above example are two pieces of information:
4 answers meaning 25% chance of each particular answer being correct
25% chance of answer being '50%'
25% chance of answer being '60%'
50% chance of answer being '25%'
this is as far as you can take it in terms of statistics, however it does not answer the question 'what is the chance you will be correct' it only answers the chance of each answer being correct, 'you' as the user or human have a 50% chance of either being right or wrong as there is no other option
also your question above is just as flawed, 0% in itself has a 1/5 chance of being correct, and if it is correct it makes it incorrect because the option itself is saying its wrong....
The point of including 0% as an option is that it makes 0% a wrong answer.
As the original is worded, you can ignore the options and say there's a zero percent chance the option you choose is correct (because of the loop), however, in my version of it, 0% is an option, meaning you can't do that.
As for how you see it as a logic puzzle instead:
I don't agree. To me, this appears to be a paradox phrased as a question to bait people into trying to answer something that doesn't have an answer. Your interpretation of it is exploiting a slightly ambiguous wording to make it mean something else than what the creator most likely intended.
In any case, even if it was a logic puzzle like you believe, I don't believe you could then call 50% a satisfactory answer. If you give ask a person a question, there's not a 50% chance of the person getting the correct answer.
The probability of a person answering the question correctly cannot easily be accurately calculated.
If I were to ask you what my name is, for example, the probability of you answering correctly is astronomically small, even though you can only possibly be right or wrong.